New Zealand’s September Crown debt compared with Treasury forecasts

Gross debt and net core Crown debt have distinct coverage

The interim release reports gross debt of NZD 238.084 billion and net core Crown debt of NZD 193.176 billion for September. The notes say net core Crown debt excludes the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and core Crown advances. Source 1

September uses the pre-election forecast

Treasury compares the actuals with forecasts from its September Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update. Net core Crown debt was NZD 156 million above that forecast. Treasury says gross debt was about NZD 1.6 billion above, partly reflecting unsettled securities trades and derivatives. Source 1

Different dollar amounts can round to the same GDP share

The actual and forecast net core Crown debt figures are both 42.3% of GDP to one decimal place. The gross debt ratio was 52.1% actual compared with 51.8% forecast. Each series retains the published precision. Source 1

June uses a different forecast vintage

The annual statements compare net core Crown debt at 30 June with the May Budget 2026 forecast. The NZD 186.784 billion June actual was below the NZD 191.761 billion forecast. The September comparison uses another date and forecast. Source 2 Source 1

Sources

• New Zealand Treasury interim financial statements to September 2026
• New Zealand Treasury financial statements for the year ended June 2026