Ledger · Sovereign borrowing
Why South Africa’s debt ratio fell after the 2026 GDP revision
South Africa’s National Treasury recalculated its 2025/26 debt-to-GDP ratio at 74.6%, down from 78.4% in the October budget statement. Statistics South Africa’s higher nominal GDP estimate changed the denominator. Treasury kept its rand debt projections unchanged in this recalculation.
Sources checked
October budget statement
Shared scale · 0% of GDP to 78.4% of GDP
November GDP recalculation
Shared scale · 0% of GDP to 78.4% of GDP
Each view uses the same scale. The table records the changes in percentage points and the projected timing of the debt threshold.
The measured economy was larger after benchmarking
The government’s report on the recalculation says Statistics South Africa’s revision increased measured nominal GDP by 5.1%, or ZAR 393 billion. Treasury used the revised economic data to recompute fiscal ratios. It said the exercise preserved the rand forecasts for revenue, spending and debt. Source 1
Debt is the numerator and GDP is the denominator
For debt as a share of GDP, divide the debt stock by nominal GDP. A larger GDP estimate can lower the result at the same debt level. The October figure of 78.4% and the recalculated 74.6% for 2025/26 differ by 3.8 percentage points. Source 1 Source 2
A smaller ratio can apply to a surplus too
The 2026/27 main budget deficit moves from 3.7% to 3.5% of GDP in the recalculation. The primary surplus moves from 1.7% to 1.6%. A primary balance excludes interest payments, so it uses a different budget measure from the overall deficit. Both ratios use the revised GDP base. Source 1 Source 2
Keep the projection date with the threshold
Treasury says its recalculation puts the debt ratio below 70% in 2032/33, a fiscal year earlier than the October forecast. The threshold is a projection. Later budget documents can revise the underlying debt or GDP assumptions. Source 1